GNSS positioning error forecasting in the Arctic: ROTI and Precise Point Positioning error forecasting from solar wind measurements

A model forecasting ionospheric disturbances and its impact on GNSS positioning is proposed, called HAPEE (High lAtitude Positioning Error Estimator). It allows predicting ROTI index corresponding Precise Point (PPP) error in Arctic region (i.e. latitudes > 50°). The for the next hour a probability of disturbance or PPP to exceed given threshold, from solar wind conditions measured at L1 Lagrange point. Or alternatively, it level that exceeded during percentage time. has been derived NMA network measurements, considering database covering years 2007 up 2019. demonstrated statistical variability mainly following lognormal distribution. proposed tested favorably measurements performed using stations were not used derivation. also shown statistics conditioned by Laplace Then new compound based conditional combining distribution distributions level.